World Cup 2026 title chances
Elo-based knockout model, overlaid with live group standings. Pick a nation to see their projected path to the trophy.
Live
Group stage complete — into the knockouts
USA · Canada · Mexico · 11 Jun – 19 Jul 2026 · live
Group standings — tap a nation for their path to the trophy
Group APts
Group BPts
Group CPts
Group DPts
Group EPts
Group FPts
Group GPts
Group HPts
Group IPts
Group JPts
Group KPts
Group LPts
Pick a nation to see their projected path to the trophy.
Projected knockout bracket
Projected winner:
ArgentinaR32
ARG98%
CPV
SUI
SEN50%
GER84%
ALG
BEL83%
EGY
ENG93%
GHA
USA71%
AUT
BRA91%
PAR
MAR70%
SWE
FRA98%
RSA
JPN59%
ECU
NED88%
CIV
CRO77%
AUS
ESP95%
COD
MEX70%
NOR
POR89%
BIH
COL65%
CANR16
ARG90%SENGER51%BELENG71%USABRA73%MARFRA86%JPNNED64%CROESP77%MEXPOR70%COLQuarter-final
ARG73%GERENG52%BRAFRA65%NEDESP60%PORSemi-final
ARG62%ENGFRA56%ESPFinal
ARG55%FRAChampion
ArgentinaMost-likely bracket: the favourite (single-tie win probability) advances each round.